Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Dubón homered to left center (401 feet).1–4
- 4Jordan singled to center, Nootbaar scored.0–4
- 1Nootbaar homered to right center (435 feet), Herrera scored and Walker scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML ATL -107 / STL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- STL: Elo 45.2%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- STL -102
- ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −16 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +33 Elo | ATL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3027–21 | Road vs home | 25–2518th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 5th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–40 | 54–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 44–20 |
| Overs–unders | 44–43–6 | 39–49–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–11 STL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.