St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Herrera hit sacrifice fly to left, Fermín scored.5–4
- 8Carroll homered to right (356 feet), Perdomo scored.4–4
- 8Winn hit sacrifice fly to left, Burleson scored.4–2
- 5Wetherholt homered to right center (402 feet).3–2
- 3Tawa homered to left (381 feet).2–2
- 2Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Moreno scored, Kepler to third.2–1
- 1Winn singled to center, Burleson scored and Herrera scored, Walker to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML STL -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.5 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +22 Elo | ARI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3024–19 | Road vs home | 26–197th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–40 | 53–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 44–20 | 37–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–51–5 | 38–51–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–11 ARI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.