Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch BrattPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tawa homered to center (414 feet).5–3
- 6Vargas singled to right, Moreno scored, Vargas out stretching at second, Gurriel Jr. to third.4–3
- 6Gurriel Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Perdomo scored on throwing error by third baseman Muncy, Moreno safe at third on error.3–3
- 5Waldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to right, Arenado scored, Tawa to third.2–3
- 5Arenado doubled to center, Vargas scored.1–3
- 3Edman singled to left, Ohtani scored and Pages scored, Edman to second.0–3
- 1Ohtani homered to center (437 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML ARI +194 / LAD -239
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.2%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -207
- ARI +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 5.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −16 | ARI: Mitch Bratt: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +65 Elo | LAD 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.61st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 21st of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 31–183rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15691st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–43 | 45–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 41–50 |
| Underdog | 36–19 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 38–50–7 | 44–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 24–27 LAD in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 51.