St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jimmy CrooksBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crooks homered to right center (443 feet).3–5
- 6Winn grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Burleson scored, Nootbaar out at second, Walker to third.2–5
- 6Walker singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Burleson to second.1–5
- 4Marte singled to left, Waldschmidt scored, Marte to second.0–5
- 3Arenado doubled to left, Kepler scored and Moreno scored.0–4
- 3Marte scored on May wild pitch.0–2
- 3Marte scored on May wild pitch.0–2
- 2McCann singled to right, Moreno scored, Arenado to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML STL -101 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.8%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +27 Elo | ARI 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3025–19 | Road vs home | 26–208th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–40 | 53–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 16–25 |
| Underdog | 45–20 | 37–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–51–6 | 38–51–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–11 ARI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.