Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Braden MontgomeryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Teel scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers, Peters to third on wild pitch by Suarez.1–9
- 5Teel scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers, Peters to third on wild pitch by Suarez.1–9
- 5Peters grounded into fielder's choice to first, Benintendi scored, B. Montgomery out at second, Teel to third.1–8
- 5B. Montgomery singled to left, C. Montgomery scored, Teel to second, Benintendi to third.1–7
- 1B. Montgomery homered to right (359 feet), Benintendi scored and Teel scored.1–6
- 1Teel singled to right, Murakami scored and Vargas scored, Benintendi to third.1–3
- 1Antonacci homered to right (398 feet).1–1
- 1Langeliers homered to left (411 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 58%
- ML ATH +129 / CHW -156
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- CHW: Elo 51.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −18 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +12 Elo | CHW 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–26 | Road vs home | 30–172nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 28th of 301455 | Elo rating | 148321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–50 | 48–46 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–28 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 35–22 | 41–27 |
| Overs–unders | 45–46–4 | 53–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 13–11 CHW in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.