Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Benintendi reached on infield single to catcher, Acuña scored, Meidroth to second.2–1
- 4Durbin homered to left (379 feet), González scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 51%
- ML BOS -105 / CHW -114
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CHW: Elo 49.0%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +2 | BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +7 Elo | BOS 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–21 | Road vs home | 28–164th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–48 | 47–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 41–27 |
| Overs–unders | 41–45–4 | 52–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–10 CHW in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.