Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tsung-Che ChengBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Luisangel AcunaBatting2-2
- Davis MartinPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Cheng singled to right, Durbin scored, Narváez to second.5–0
- 4Narváez singled to right, Yoshida scored, Durbin to third.4–0
- 3Seigler scored on Martin wild pitch, Rafaela to third on wild pitch by Martin.3–0
- 3Seigler scored on Martin wild pitch, Rafaela to third on wild pitch by Martin.3–0
- 3Rafaela doubled to center, Cheng scored, Seigler to third.2–0
- 3Cheng singled to center, Duran scored, Cheng to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 52%
- ML BOS -103 / CHW -117
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 48.4%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- CHW -106
- BOS +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +11 Elo | BOS 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3024–21 | Road vs home | 28–153rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 9th of 301517 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–48 | 47–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 41–27 |
| Overs–unders | 41–44–4 | 52–36–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 11–10 CHW in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.