Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Payton TollePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting3-4
- Noah SchultzPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to center, González scored, Durbin to third.8–1
- 9González doubled to right, Contreras scored.7–1
- 9Contreras doubled to left, Abreu scored and Wong scored.6–1
- 7Teel grounded into fielder's choice to first, Meidroth scored, Perez out at second, Antonacci to third.4–1
- 4Wong hit sacrifice bunt, Duran scored, Wong to second, Monasterio out at third in rundown.4–0
- 2Rafaela homered to left (383 feet), Wong scored.3–0
- 2Monasterio homered to left (375 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BOS -125 / CHW +104
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.7%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -113
- CHW +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −15 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +12 Elo | BOS 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 9th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 28–142nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 9th of 301514 | Elo rating | 148621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–48 | 47–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–33 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 41–26 |
| Overs–unders | 40–44–4 | 51–36–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–10 CHW in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.