Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-4
- Gage JumpPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Meidroth doubled to left, C. Montgomery scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 52%
- ML ATH -103 / CHW -117
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- CHW: Elo 55.1%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- CHW -106
- ATH +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.2 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +4 | ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Bryan Hudson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +36 Elo | CHW 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 29–174th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 28th of 301456 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–50 | 48–45 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–28 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 34–22 | 41–27 |
| Overs–unders | 45–45–4 | 53–38–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 13–10 CHW in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.