Athletics at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-4
- Jack PerkinsPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Valencia homered to center (425 feet).1–4
- 5McKinstry homered to right center (399 feet), Carpenter scored.1–3
- 5Bolte grounded into fielder's choice to first, Wilson scored, Butler out at second.1–1
- 3Rogers homered to left (363 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML ATH +109 / DET -131
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 56.4%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −22 | ATH: Jose Suarez: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +45 Elo | DET 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 25–2110th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 28th of 301461 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–48 | 44–48 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–28 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 34–20 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44–4 | 40–48–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 11–10 DET in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.