Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching2.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Tristan PetersBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meidroth singled to center, C. Montgomery scored.1–14
- 8Vargas homered to left (384 feet).1–13
- 7Peters tripled to right, Benintendi scored.1–12
- 7Benintendi doubled to left, Meidroth scored, Vargas scored and B. Montgomery scored.1–11
- 7Vargas hit a ground rule double, Murakami scored.1–8
- 7Murakami doubled to right, Antonacci scored.1–7
- 7Peters homered to right center (410 feet), Teel scored.1–6
- 7Soderstrom homered to right (392 feet).1–4
- 5Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Peters scored.0–4
- 5Antonacci singled to right, Teel scored, Peters to third.0–3
- 5Peters singled to right, Benintendi scored, Teel to second.0–2
- 5Benintendi doubled to right, Meidroth scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 62%
- ML ATH +153 / CHW -186
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- CHW: Elo 58.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -165
- ATH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +4 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +57 Elo | CHW 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 28–174th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 28th of 301460 | Elo rating | 147924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–49 | 47–45 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–28 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 34–21 | 41–27 |
| Overs–unders | 44–45–4 | 52–38–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 13–9 CHW in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.