Washington Nationals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wilson singled to center, McNeil scored.5–2
- 5Crews homered to left (362 feet).5–1
- 5Abrams homered to center (422 feet), Mead scored.4–1
- 4Ford doubled to left, Crews scored.2–1
- 3Soderstrom singled to right, Williams scored.1–1
- 3Mead grounded out to shortstop, Nuñez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML WSH -148 / ATH +123
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -133
- ATH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.6 – 4.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −29 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 1.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +46 Elo | WSH 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3029–19 | Road vs home | 20–2929th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 26th of 301475 | Elo rating | 145228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–42 | 46–52 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 46–29 | 35–24 |
| Overs–unders | 57–36–6 | 48–46–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–5 ATH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
