New York Yankees at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, Bellinger scored.5–3
- 8Rice tripled to left, Schuemann scored and Grisham scored.4–3
- 7Nuñez scored on error, Ruiz safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Chisholm Jr., Ruiz safe at second on error.2–3
- 6Mead homered to center (409 feet).2–2
- 5Wells singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.2–1
- 5Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Bellinger scored.1–1
- 1Wood homered to center (434 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML NYY -107 / WSH -113
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 44.4%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -103
- NYY +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −9 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +39 Elo | NYY 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 4th of 3030–22 | Road vs home | 20–3029th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–46 | 56–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 37–40 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 46–28 |
| Overs–unders | 41–49–5 | 55–35–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–4 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.