Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Brice MatthewsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Matthews homered to left (363 feet), Diaz scored and Shewmake scored.11–12
- 8Shewmake doubled to right, Wade Jr. scored, Diaz to third.8–12
- 6Shewmake grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Smith scored, Diaz out at second.7–12
- 5Wood homered to center (446 feet), Crews scored, Young scored and Nuñez scored.6–12
- 5Millas hit sacrifice fly to left, Abrams scored.6–8
- 5Mead homered to left center (404 feet).6–7
- 3Abrams homered to right (392 feet), García Jr. scored and Mead scored.6–6
- 3Mead singled to left, Wood scored, García Jr. to third.6–3
- 3García Jr. doubled to left, Nuñez scored, Wood to third.6–2
- 3Diaz homered to left (389 feet), Smith scored.6–1
- 2Altuve homered to left (372 feet), Shewmake scored and Matthews scored.4–1
- 1Mead doubled to center, Wood scored.1–1
- 1Walker doubled to center, Paredes scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML HOU -106 / WSH -114
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.8%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 5.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 18–2729th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Elo rating | 147726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–47 | 55–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 31–24 | 46–26 |
| Overs–unders | 48–39–5 | 54–32–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–4 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.