Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-4
- Mason EnglertPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Paredes homered to left center (401 feet).0–2
- 4Walker homered to right (351 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML TB -102 / HOU -118
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -107
- TB +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −2 | TB: Mason Englert: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +2 Elo | TB 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 22–2421st of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–34 | 44–47 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–20 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44–4 | 48–38–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–11 HOU in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.