Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez homered to center (424 feet), Altuve scored.8–10
- 7Dezenzo singled to right, Altuve scored, Paredes to third.8–8
- 7Paredes singled to left, Allen scored, Altuve to second.8–7
- 7Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to right, Trammell scored, Allen to third.8–6
- 7DeLuca homered to left (355 feet).8–5
- 5Alvarez singled to left, Allen scored, Altuve to third.7–5
- 4Diaz homered to right center (394 feet), Walker scored.7–4
- 4Caminero grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Walls scored on error, Feduccia safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Allen, Feduccia to third.7–2
- 3Mullins stole home, DeLuca stole second.6–2
- 3Mullins stole home, DeLuca stole second.6–2
- 3DeLuca singled to right, Caminero scored, Mullins to third.5–2
- 3Mesa Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Aranda scored.4–2
- 2Palacios homered to right center (409 feet), Mesa Jr. scored.3–2
- 1Alvarez homered to left center (403 feet), Altuve scored.1–2
- 1Caminero homered to left center (437 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML TB -102 / HOU -118
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.4%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -107
- TB +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 3.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +15 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +4 Elo | TB 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 21–2422nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 7th of 301521 | Elo rating | 148919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–33 | 43–47 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–20 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 37–44–4 | 47–38–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–10 HOU in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.