Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Nick FortesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fortes doubled to center, Walls scored.3–1
- 7Caminero homered to left (374 feet).2–1
- 6Alvarez homered to right center (427 feet).1–1
- 6Fortes homered to left center (391 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML TB -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 46.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −4 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 21–2322nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–33 | 43–46 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–20 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 37–43–4 | 47–37–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–10 HOU in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.