New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching2.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bellinger singled to center, Rice scored, Domínguez to third.12–4
- 7McMahon doubled to right, Schuemann scored.11–4
- 6Williamson singled to left, Simpson scored.10–4
- 6Rice homered to center (422 feet), Wells scored and Grisham scored.10–3
- 4Wells homered to right (375 feet).7–3
- 3Mesa Jr. hit a ground rule double, Díaz scored.6–3
- 3Caminero grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Fortes scored, Aranda out at second, Díaz to third.6–2
- 3Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Bellinger scored.6–1
- 3Caballero singled to right, Domínguez scored, Bellinger to third.5–1
- 3Rice homered to right (367 feet), Grisham scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.4–1
- 3Grisham singled to right, McMahon scored.2–1
- 3McMahon doubled to right, Schuemann scored.1–1
- 1Caminero homered to right center (438 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML NYY +119 / TB -144
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- TB: Elo 51.1%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- NYY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | NYY: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +8 Elo | TB 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3027–22 | Road vs home | 33–131st of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 15198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–46 | 54–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 34–20 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 40–47–5 | 39–47–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 23–24 TB in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 47.