New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting2-4
- Gerrit ColePitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Aranda hit sacrifice fly to center, Walls scored.0–3
- 5Aranda doubled to center, Fortes scored, Díaz to third.0–2
- 3Aranda singled to right, Díaz scored, Aranda to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML NYY +101 / TB -122
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TB: Elo 48.3%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -110
- NYY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.4 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −2 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +12 Elo | NYY 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 5th of 3027–21 | Road vs home | 32–131st of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301536 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–45 | 53–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 33–20 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 40–46–5 | 39–46–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 23–23 TB in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 46.