New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jose CaballeroBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rice homered to right center (400 feet).5–1
- 8Caballero homered to left center (398 feet).4–1
- 5Palacios singled to left, Simpson scored.3–1
- 5Caballero homered to left center (395 feet), Domínguez scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -129 / TB +107
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.3%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -117
- TB +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −3 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +9 Elo | NYY 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3026–20 | Road vs home | 31–121st of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301535 | Elo rating | 15188th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–44 | 52–35 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 34–40 | 32–20 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45–5 | 38–45–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 22–22 TB in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 44.