New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.4–6
- 4Díaz homered to right (368 feet).3–6
- 4Feduccia homered to right center (396 feet), Palacios scored.3–5
- 4Palacios doubled to center, Walls scored.3–3
- 3Rice homered to left center (382 feet), Schuemann scored and Grisham scored.3–2
- 2Díaz singled to left, Palacios scored, Feduccia to second.0–2
- 2Mesa Jr. homered to right (367 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML NYY +113 / TB -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- TB: Elo 52.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- NYY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +5 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +17 Elo | TB 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3027–20 | Road vs home | 31–131st of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301537 | Elo rating | 15158th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–44 | 52–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 32–20 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 39–46–5 | 38–46–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 23–22 TB in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 45.