Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Allen reached on infield single to shortstop, Dezenzo scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams, Allen to second.2–8
- 5Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Crews scored.1–8
- 5Tena grounded out to first, Lile scored, Vivas to second, Crews to third.1–7
- 5Abrams homered to right center (415 feet).1–6
- 5Matthews singled to center, Diaz scored.1–5
- 4García Jr. homered to right center (417 feet), Ruiz scored and Wood scored.0–5
- 3Lile doubled to left, García Jr. scored.0–2
- 3Abrams hit sacrifice fly to left, Wood scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML HOU +108 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.2%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -118
- HOU +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +8 Elo | WSH 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 19–2828th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–47 | 55–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 46–26 |
| Overs–unders | 49–40–5 | 55–33–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–5 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.