Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tena homered to right center (398 feet).6–3
- 8Altuve homered to left center (402 feet).6–2
- 6Vázquez singled to right, Dezenzo scored, Allen to third.5–2
- 4Vázquez hit sacrifice fly to center, Matthews scored.4–2
- 4Allen singled to left, Dezenzo scored and Walker scored, Matthews to second.3–2
- 3Abrams hit sacrifice fly to center, Wood scored.1–2
- 2Allen hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored, Smith to third.1–1
- 1Wood homered to right center (419 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML HOU -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +12 | HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +19 Elo | WSH 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 19–2728th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 147826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–47 | 55–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 46–26 |
| Overs–unders | 49–39–5 | 55–32–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–5 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.