New York Yankees at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goldschmidt homered to left center (395 feet).4–2
- 8Grisham homered to right (398 feet), Caballero scored.3–2
- 8McMahon homered to right center (416 feet).1–2
- 1Mead homered to left center (388 feet).0–2
- 1Wood homered to right center (388 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML NYY -199 / WSH +163
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.3%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -175
- WSH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −10 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +65 Elo | NYY 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3029–22 | Road vs home | 20–2928th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301538 | Elo rating | 147725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–46 | 56–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–40 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 46–27 |
| Overs–unders | 41–48–5 | 55–34–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–4 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.