New York Yankees at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells homered to right center (387 feet).5–3
- 9Chisholm Jr. homered to right (374 feet), Domínguez scored.4–3
- 7Wood homered to right center (419 feet).2–3
- 7Ruiz homered to left (371 feet).2–2
- 4Domínguez homered to center (409 feet).2–1
- 3Crews grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Wood scored, Mead out at second.1–1
- 1Rice homered to left center (387 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -158 / WSH +131
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.1%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -141
- WSH +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.4 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −10 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +42 Elo | NYY 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 3028–22 | Road vs home | 20–2828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301537 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–46 | 56–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 46–26 |
| Overs–unders | 41–47–5 | 55–33–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–4 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.