Washington Nationals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-4
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting3-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vivas hit sacrifice fly to left, Ruiz scored.1–15
- 8McNeil singled to right, Kuroda-Grauer scored, Walton to third.0–15
- 7Langeliers doubled to right, McNeil scored, Soderstrom scored and Wilson scored.0–14
- 7Wilson singled to center, Butler scored, McNeil to second.0–11
- 7McNeil singled to right, Walton scored, Butler to second, Butler safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Wood.0–10
- 7Cortes homered to left center (394 feet).0–9
- 6Soderstrom homered to right center (406 feet), McNeil scored.0–8
- 2Kuroda-Grauer grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wilson scored, Cortes out at second, Langeliers to third.0–6
- 1Butler grounded into fielder's choice to second, Walton scored, Heim out at second.0–5
- 1Heim singled to center, Kuroda-Grauer scored, Walton to third.0–4
- 1Kuroda-Grauer doubled to right, Cortes scored.0–3
- 1Cortes doubled to center, Soderstrom scored.0–2
- 1Wilson homered to left (411 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML WSH -111 / ATH -109
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.0%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -101
- ATH +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.8 – 5.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +7 Elo | WSH 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–18 | Road vs home | 19–2929th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 144829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–41 | 45–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 10–28 |
| Underdog | 46–28 | 35–24 |
| Overs–unders | 56–36–6 | 47–46–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–4 ATH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
