Washington Nationals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting4-5, 2 HR, 8 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bolte hit a ground rule double, Kuroda-Grauer scored.23–4
- 9Langeliers homered to left (399 feet).23–3
- 9Lile homered to center (412 feet), Crews scored and Ford scored.23–2
- 9Ford singled to center, Tena scored, Crews to third.20–2
- 9Crews doubled to center, Chaparro scored, Tena to third.19–2
- 7Chaparro homered to left (406 feet), Wood scored and Mead scored.18–2
- 7Mead doubled to left, Nuñez scored, Wood to third.15–2
- 6Lile singled to right, Abrams scored.14–2
- 6Abrams doubled to center, Chaparro scored.13–2
- 6Chaparro singled to center, Wood scored on error and Mead scored on error, Chaparro safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Bolte.12–2
- 6Wood singled to right, Young scored and Nuñez scored.10–2
- 5Ford homered to center (387 feet), Crews scored.8–2
- 5Chaparro homered to left center (467 feet), Mead scored.6–2
- 4Soderstrom homered to center (415 feet), Wilson scored.4–2
- 4Young hit a ground rule double, Ford scored.4–0
- 3Chaparro singled to left, Mead scored.3–0
- 3Mead doubled to left, Nuñez scored and Young scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML WSH -136 / ATH +113
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 47.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -123
- ATH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.5 – 5.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +15 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +18 Elo | ATH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–18 | Road vs home | 19–2829th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301475 | Elo rating | 145228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–41 | 45–51 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 10–28 |
| Underdog | 46–28 | 35–23 |
| Overs–unders | 55–36–6 | 46–46–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–4 ATH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
