Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch BrattPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7White scored on Ginkel wild pitch, McNeil stole third.5–2
- 7White scored on Ginkel wild pitch, McNeil stole third.5–2
- 7White scored on Ginkel wild pitch, McNeil stole third.5–2
- 7McNeil singled to center, Butler scored and Langeliers scored, White to third.4–2
- 6Marte homered to left (402 feet), Barrosa scored.2–2
- 5Wilson homered to left center (399 feet).2–0
- 2Kuroda-Grauer homered to left center (416 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML ATH +124 / ARI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 65.9%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -134
- ATH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.4 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −36 | +4 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Mitch Bratt: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +115 Elo | ARI 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 28–207th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 28th of 301450 | Elo rating | 150713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–53 | 54–45 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 17–26 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 37–19 |
| Overs–unders | 48–47–4 | 39–52–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–6 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
