Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- James McCannBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Williams hit sacrifice fly to center, White scored.5–15
- 9Butler singled to right, Walton scored, White to third.4–15
- 8Locklear singled to center, Vargas scored, Waldschmidt to third.3–15
- 7Heim singled to left, McNeil scored, Butler to third.3–14
- 6Waldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to center, McCann scored.2–14
- 6Tawa doubled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored, McCann to third.2–13
- 6McCann singled to left, Moreno scored, Vargas to second, Arenado to third.2–11
- 6Carroll scored on Tur wild pitch.2–10
- 6Carroll scored on Tur wild pitch.2–10
- 5Waldschmidt homered to left center (426 feet), Tawa scored.2–9
- 5McCann homered to left center (431 feet), Vargas scored.2–7
- 5Vargas doubled to center, Arenado scored.2–5
- 5Moreno homered to center (427 feet).2–4
- 5Marte scored on Jump wild pitch.2–3
- 5Marte scored on Jump wild pitch.2–3
- 5McNeil homered to right (390 feet).2–2
- 4Arenado homered to left (396 feet).1–2
- 4Carroll homered to left center (375 feet).1–1
- 3Soderstrom grounded out to second, Heim scored, Wilson to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML ATH +123 / ARI -149
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 61.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -133
- ATH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.2 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +81 Elo | ARI 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 29–218th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 28th of 301452 | Elo rating | 150514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–53 | 54–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 17–28 |
| Underdog | 37–25 | 37–19 |
| Overs–unders | 49–48–4 | 40–53–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–7 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
