Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Patrick BaileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 12Keaschall singled to left, Lewis scored on error, Larnach to second, Larnach safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.3–1
- 12Larnach singled to left, Jeffers scored, Lewis to second.2–1
- 8Roden singled to center, Lewis scored, Keaschall to second.1–1
- 5Bailey homered to right (420 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML MIN +123 / CLE -149
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -133
- MIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.2 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +43 Elo | CLE 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 27–2515th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 150910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–52 | 53–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–24 | 16–34 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 56–39–8 | 49–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 18–30 CLE in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 48.