Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Tyler TolbertBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Twins- Austin MartinBatting1-1
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Caglianone reached on infield single to first, Jensen scored.4–0
- 5Jensen doubled to left, Tolbert scored.3–0
- 4Loftin hit sacrifice fly to center, Perez scored.2–0
- 3Tolbert homered to left center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML KC +169 / MIN -206
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.4%, market 64.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -181
- KC +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 5.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +17 Elo | MIN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 64.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 3019–36 | Road vs home | 29–2613th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–53 | 54–54 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 41–29 | 40–28 |
| Overs–unders | 50–55–3 | 57–43–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 22–25 MIN in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 47.