Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lewis tripled to right, Caratini scored and Lee scored.2–3
- 6Perez singled to right, Thomas scored.2–1
- 6Rojas stole home, Thomas stole second.1–1
- 6Rojas stole home, Thomas stole second.1–1
- 4Bell singled to center, Clemens scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML KC +158 / MIN -193
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- KC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 5.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +8 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +55 Elo | MIN 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 3019–35 | Road vs home | 28–2614th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 27th of 301473 | Elo rating | 148324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–53 | 54–53 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 40–29 | 40–28 |
| Overs–unders | 50–54–3 | 57–42–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 22–24 MIN in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 46.