San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schmitt homered to left (376 feet).4–5
- 7Thomas singled to right, Loftin scored and Marte scored, Jensen to third.3–5
- 7Loftin singled to left, Massey scored, Marte to second.3–3
- 7Perez homered to center (437 feet), Pasquantino scored.3–2
- 7Adames hit a ground rule double, Lee scored.3–0
- 7Lee tripled to right, Devers scored.2–0
- 6Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Adames scored, Gilbert to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 56%
- ML SF -142 / KC +118
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- SF: Elo 50.7%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -128
- KC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −20 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +5 Elo | SF 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–34 | Road vs home | 25–2720th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 25th of 301477 | Elo rating | 147127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–52 | 49–53 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 14–24 |
| Underdog | 33–29 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders | 45–46–10 | 49–51–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–6 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.