San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Young homered to right (369 feet), Rodríguez scored.3–6
- 6Raley homered to right center (386 feet).3–4
- 5Raleigh grounded into double play, third to second to first, Young scored, Arozarena out at second.3–3
- 5Arraez doubled to left, Adames scored.3–2
- 4We. Wilson singled to center, Naylor scored.2–2
- 4Naylor singled to left, Arozarena scored.2–1
- 1Ramos singled to right, Schmitt scored.2–0
- 1Eldridge homered to center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 64%
- ML SF +163 / SEA -199
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.4%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -175
- SF +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 2.9 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +12 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +52 Elo | SEA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–31 | Road vs home | 28–219th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Elo rating | 15108th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–51 | 42–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 29–46 |
| Underdog | 31–28 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44–10 | 46–46–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3–3 | 5–2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–5 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.