San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to left, Robles scored.3–4
- 7Young homered to right center (405 feet), Arozarena scored and Naylor scored.3–3
- 6Adames homered to right (358 feet).3–0
- 6Devers homered to left (339 feet).2–0
- 3Eldridge singled to center, Gilbert scored on fielding error by center fielder Raley, Arraez to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML SF +136 / SEA -164
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.6%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -147
- SF +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.1 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +46 Elo | SEA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 25th of 3020–30 | Road vs home | 27–219th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 150910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–51 | 42–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 29–45 |
| Underdog | 30–28 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44–9 | 46–46–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–4 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.