Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick DavilaPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford doubled to right, Kennedy scored.8–2
- 8Aranda homered to left (337 feet), Díaz scored.7–2
- 4Arozarena homered to right center (378 feet), Kennedy scored and Crawford scored.7–0
- 4We. Wilson homered to left (401 feet).4–0
- 2Crawford doubled to left, Garver scored and Young scored, Kennedy to third.3–0
- 2Robles hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored, Garver to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML SEA +129 / TB -156
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- TB: Elo 55.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -140
- SEA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.6 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +36 Elo | TB 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3020–29 | Road vs home | 35–141st of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15025th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–55 | 56–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 36–21 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 45–46–5 | 41–47–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–12 TB in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.