Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-2
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rays- Ryan ViladeBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fortes reached on infield single to pitcher, Williamson scored on error, Fortes safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Rucker.1–6
- 7Vilade homered to left (387 feet), Aranda scored and Caminero scored.1–5
- 3Aranda doubled to center, Díaz scored.1–2
- 2Williamson doubled to left, Simpson scored.1–1
- 2Emerson hit sacrifice fly to center, Young scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML SEA -108 / TB -112
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- TB: Elo 50.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.5 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −4 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +3 Elo | TB 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3020–28 | Road vs home | 34–141st of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15188th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–54 | 55–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 35–21 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 45–46–4 | 41–47–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–11 TB in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.