Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Walls hit sacrifice fly to left, Simpson scored.2–7
- 7Caminero homered to right (385 feet), Aranda scored.2–6
- 6Canzone grounded into fielder's choice to second, Crawford scored, Arozarena out at second.2–4
- 5Mesa Jr. homered to right center (392 feet).1–4
- 5Mullins homered to right (378 feet).1–3
- 5Young homered to right center (398 feet).1–2
- 4Palacios homered to right (396 feet).0–2
- 3Simpson singled to center, Caminero scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML SEA +112 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- TB: Elo 55.2%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- SEA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +13 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +36 Elo | TB 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 3020–27 | Road vs home | 33–141st of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 9th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–53 | 54–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 34–21 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 44–46–4 | 40–47–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–10 TB in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.