Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adames homered to left (407 feet), Devers scored.2–8
- 8Devers hit a ground rule double, Schmitt scored.2–6
- 8Schmitt doubled to center, Arraez scored.2–5
- 5Devers singled to right, Ramos scored, Schmitt to second, Arraez to third.2–4
- 5Arraez doubled to right, Cavanaugh scored, Ramos to third.2–3
- 4Eldridge homered to right (394 feet).2–2
- 4Castro homered to left center (391 feet), Goodman scored.2–1
- 1Schmitt homered to center (420 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML COL +109 / SF -132
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- SF: Elo 59.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +65 Elo | SF 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–31 | Road vs home | 19–2427th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 30th of 301419 | Elo rating | 147427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–42 | 42–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 51–39 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders | 44–46–4 | 43–41–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 13–32 SF in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 45.