Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Jonatan ClaseBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer MilesPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Clement scored, Lukes out at second.9–3
- 5Arraez doubled to right, Ramos scored.8–3
- 3Devers grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Ramos scored, Schmitt out at second, Arraez to third.8–2
- 3Clement hit sacrifice fly to right, Clase scored.8–1
- 3Giménez singled to left, Keys scored, Clase to third.7–1
- 3Keys singled to right, Okamoto scored and Valenzuela scored.6–1
- 3Valenzuela singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Okamoto to second.4–1
- 2Bericoto reached on infield single to second, Devers scored, Eldridge to second.3–1
- 2Clase homered to right (362 feet), Valenzuela scored and Keys scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -118 / SF -102
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- SF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +5 | TOR: Spencer Miles: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +21 Elo | SF 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 19–2223rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–48 | 42–48 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–31 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders | 45–42–4 | 41–41–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–3 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.