Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Karros homered to left center (435 feet).2–4
- 6Schmitt homered to left center (415 feet), Ramos scored and Arraez scored.1–4
- 5J. Rodríguez doubled to center, Eldridge scored.1–1
- 3Sullivan scored on a balk.1–0
- 3Sullivan scored on a balk.1–0
- 3Sullivan scored on a balk.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML COL +123 / SF -149
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- SF: Elo 61.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | 0 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +83 Elo | SF 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–32 | Road vs home | 20–2527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 30th of 301418 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–43 | 43–51 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 52–40 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders | 45–47–4 | 44–42–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 14–33 SF in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 47.