San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting1-3
- Bryce MillerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Adames homered to center (393 feet), Schmitt scored, Ramos scored and Lee scored.7–0
- 6Lee scored, Arraez safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Young, Cavanaugh to second, Gilbert to third.3–0
- 5Eldridge homered to center (402 feet), Cavanaugh scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML SF +155 / SEA -188
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.4%, market 62.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -166
- SF +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 2.9 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +66 Elo | SEA 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 62.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–30 | Road vs home | 27–207th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 26th of 301478 | Elo rating | 15139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–51 | 42–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 29–44 |
| Underdog | 29–28 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44–8 | 46–46–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–4 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.