San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Perez homered to center (438 feet), Pasquantino scored.1–6
- 4Collins singled to center, Massey scored.1–4
- 3Caglianone doubled to left, Jensen scored.1–3
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to left center (411 feet).1–2
- 1Thomas homered to left center (421 feet), Jensen scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML SD -110 / KC -109
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- SD: Elo 51.5%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- KC +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.5 – 5.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Randy Dobnak (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +11 Elo | SD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 22–2624th of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Elo rating | 147027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–51 | 48–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders | 42–53–2 | 48–48–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–5 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.