Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mason FluhartyPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6France homered to left (377 feet).7–8
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to left (385 feet), Clase scored and Lukes scored.7–7
- 4Cronenworth singled to center, Sheets scored, France to third.4–7
- 3Song singled to center, France scored and Cronenworth scored.4–6
- 2Machado singled to center, Merrill scored and Song scored, Bogaerts to third.4–4
- 2Clase homered to right (375 feet), Kirk scored.4–2
- 2Giménez grounded out to second, Varsho scored.2–2
- 2Kirk doubled to right, Okamoto scored, Varsho to third.1–2
- 1France hit sacrifice fly to right, Merrill scored.0–2
- 1Sheets walked, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to second, Merrill to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML TOR -108 / SD -111
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- SD: Elo 49.3%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -101
- TOR +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −14 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +5 Elo | TOR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 16th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 25–2417th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 150314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–48 | 45–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 47–43–4 | 39–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–3 SD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.