Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Merrill singled to left, Campusano scored, Tatis Jr. to second.5–3
- 5Okamoto homered to left center (377 feet), Clement scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.5–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. reached on infield single to third, Straw scored, Clement to second.2–2
- 4Kirk doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer to third.1–2
- 1Bogaerts homered to left center (401 feet), Merrill scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML TOR -101 / SD -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- SD: Elo 52.8%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −4 | TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: JP Sears: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +19 Elo | SD 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 20th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 25–2315th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–48 | 45–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 47–42–4 | 39–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–3 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.