Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8France hit sacrifice fly to center, Bowen scored.4–5
- 8Machado singled to center, Bogaerts scored.4–4
- 8Clase singled to center, Varsho scored, Kirk to second.4–3
- 4Clement homered to left (376 feet), Giménez scored.3–3
- 2France scored on a balk, Song to second on a balk, Cronenworth to third on a balk.1–3
- 2France scored on a balk, Song to second on a balk, Cronenworth to third on a balk.1–3
- 2Song walked, Sheets scored, Cronenworth to second, France to third.1–2
- 2Cronenworth singled to left, Machado scored, France to second, Sheets to third.1–1
- 1Lukes homered to right (376 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -126 / SD +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.5%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −9 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: German Marquez: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +17 Elo | SD 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 26–2417th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 150413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–48 | 45–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 26–17 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 48–43–4 | 40–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–4 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.