Kansas City Royals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Lane ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soto homered to right center (435 feet).3–7
- 7Caglianone doubled to right, Loftin scored.3–6
- 5Alvarez singled to left, Benge scored.2–6
- 5Benge singled to center, Ewing scored, Soto to third. Soto scored on throwing error by center fielder Thomas, Benge to third.2–5
- 5Bichette hit sacrifice fly to center, Baty scored.2–3
- 5Taylor homered to left center (380 feet).2–2
- 4Witt Jr. homered to left (386 feet).2–1
- 2Young doubled to right, Benge scored.1–1
- 1Thomas homered to left (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML KC +124 / NYM -149
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.7%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -134
- KC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −21 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +9 Elo | KC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3017–29 | Road vs home | 20–2526th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301478 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–46 | 42–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 34–25 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 45–46–2 | 43–41–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–5 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.