Kansas City Royals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jensen doubled to right, Rojas scored.2–6
- 8Alvarez singled to left, Baty scored.1–6
- 8Young scored on Cuas wild pitch, Baty to second on wild pitch by Cuas.1–5
- 8Young scored on Cuas wild pitch, Baty to second on wild pitch by Cuas.1–5
- 8Baty singled to center, Benge scored and Taylor scored, Young to third.1–4
- 8Young hit by pitch, Lindor scored, Polanco to second, Benge to third.1–2
- 6Perez singled to left, Caglianone scored.1–1
- 1Ewing homered to center (420 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 64%
- ML KC +163 / NYM -199
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.6%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -175
- KC +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 5.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | KC: Steven Cruz: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +18 Elo | NYM 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 3017–28 | Road vs home | 19–2527th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 147826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–45 | 41–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 45–45–2 | 43–40–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–4 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.