Kansas City Royals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Tyler TolbertBatting5-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benge singled to right, Ewing scored, Lindor to third.16–12
- 7Baty hit sacrifice fly to center, Polanco scored.16–11
- 7Polanco doubled to right, Benge scored.16–10
- 7Thomas doubled to left, Tolbert scored and Witt Jr. scored.16–9
- 7Witt Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Massey scored, Jensen out at second, Tolbert to third.14–9
- 7Jensen walked, Collins scored, Tolbert to second, Massey to third.13–9
- 7Loftin homered to left center (387 feet), Perez scored.12–9
- 7Perez doubled to center, Thomas scored.10–9
- 5Perez singled to center, Tolbert scored, Thomas to third.9–9
- 5Witt Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Massey scored, Jensen out at second, Tolbert to third.8–9
- 5Massey doubled to right, Collins and Loftin scored.7–9
- 5Collins doubled to left, Caglianone scored, Loftin to third.5–9
- 4Soto homered to center (415 feet), Torrens scored and Ewing scored.4–9
- 4Ewing singled to center, Baty scored, Torrens to third.4–6
- 4Thomas doubled to left, Massey scored and Tolbert scored, Witt Jr. to third.4–5
- 2Ewing homered to right (402 feet), Torrens scored.2–5
- 2Tolbert homered to left (377 feet), Massey scored.2–3
- 1Benge reached on infield single to pitcher, Ewing scored on throwing error by P Lugo, Bichette scored on throwing error by 1B Caglianone and Benge scored on throwing error by 3B Loftin.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML KC +119 / NYM -144
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.1%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -129
- KC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +2 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Cionel Perez: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +35 Elo | NYM 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 3016–28 | Road vs home | 19–2427th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–45 | 41–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 44–45–2 | 42–40–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–4 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.