San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ty FranceBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Jensen singled to left, Massey scored and Loftin scored.6–7
- 10Collins grounded out to second, Perez scored, Loftin to second, Massey to third.6–5
- 10Massey reached on infield single to second, Pasquantino scored, Perez to second.6–4
- 10Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Song scored, Tatis Jr. to third.6–3
- 10Tatis Jr. singled to right, Andujar scored, Song to third.5–3
- 10Andujar doubled to right, Cronenworth scored.4–3
- 9France homered to left center (421 feet).3–3
- 8Massey singled to center, Pasquantino scored on error, Massey safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Merrill, Perez safe at third on error.2–3
- 6Perez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Thomas scored on throwing error by shortstop Bogaerts, Pasquantino safe at third on error.2–2
- 5Campusano grounded into fielder's choice to second, France scored on fielding error by second baseman Massey and Andujar scored on error.2–1
- 2Thomas homered to left center (445 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML SD -126 / KC +104
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- SD: Elo 57.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.1 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −21 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +49 Elo | SD 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 16th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 21–2625th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 12th of 301505 | Elo rating | 146927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–50 | 47–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–29 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 34–29 |
| Overs–unders | 41–53–2 | 47–48–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–4 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.